WA's Gas Supply and Demand Outlook: Opportunities Unveiled

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has published its latest Western Australia Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), forecasting that domestic gas supply will surpass consumption until 2027. The report provides an in-depth analysis of gas supply adequacy and highlights potential investment opportunities through 2034, using data from industry stakeholders and public sources.

According to AEMO's Interim Executive General Manager for Western Australia, Nicola Falcon, the state’s gas supply is poised to increase due to expansions in existing facilities and the launch of new projects.

“We anticipate that gas supply will continue to exceed demand until 2027, driven by increased production alongside a temporary slowdown in mining and industrial activities,” Ms. Falcon explained.

However, the report notes a potential supply gap of 162 terajoules (TJ) per day starting in 2028, as mining projects and refineries are expected to resume operations, alongside increased consumption from existing operations. This gap could arise if project timelines cannot align with demand growth.

Post-2028, gas supply is expected to face challenges as reserves in existing fields decline. By 2030, new developments will become essential to meet domestic consumption needs. While some recent discoveries have been made, they remain speculative and are not yet included in supply projections.

The GSOO forecasts domestic gas demand will grow by 1.8% annually, reaching 1,336 TJ/day by 2034, peaking at 1,378 TJ/day in 2031. Meanwhile, supply is projected to grow 4.3% annually between 2024 and 2029 but decline by 4.1% annually from 2030 onward.

Gas will continue to play a pivotal role in Western Australia’s energy transition as renewable energy adoption increases. AEMO expects gas consumption for electricity generation to become more seasonal, with higher demand during periods of low renewable output or peak electricity usage in summer and winter.

Ms. Falcon noted, “Gas storage and flexibility in daily supply will be critical to address the seasonal and peakier nature of gas demand in the coming years.”

With coal-fired power generation being phased out, gas, supported by batteries, will offset renewable variability and ensure energy reliability. Additionally, as industrial decarbonisation accelerates and renewable energy projects expand, gas demand could decrease further in Western Australia’s South West Interconnected System (SWIS).

Despite the shift towards renewables, AEMO anticipates gas will remain integral to households, businesses, and industries while supporting grid reliability during the transition to net-zero emissions.

Over the next decade, Western Australia’s gas landscape will require innovative solutions and investments to balance the evolving energy demands and ensure long-term supply stability.

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