AEMO Launches Consultation on Draft 2025 IASR

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released the first stage of its Draft 2025 Inputs, Assumptions, and Scenarios Report (IASR), inviting feedback from industry stakeholders. This critical biennial report guides AEMO’s energy forecasting and planning, shaping the Integrated System Plan (ISP) for Australia’s energy transition.

AEMO Executive General Manager System Design, Merryn York, stated that the scenarios in the Draft 2025 IASR reflect plausible pathways for achieving the nation's net-zero goals. Key scenarios include:

• Step Change: A central scenario focusing on rapid transition to net zero.

• Progressive Change: A slower-paced transition scenario.

• Green Energy Scenarios: Variants exploring high-growth transitions, including Green Energy Exports and Green Energy Industries, with varying emphasis on export opportunities.

These scenarios consider government policies, renewable energy targets, and emissions reduction commitments, while also addressing feedback on green energy developments and data center roles.

AEMO aims to broaden its analysis by integrating additional factors, such as:

• Enhanced demand forecasting.

• Consumer energy resources.

• Gas integration into the ISP.

Stakeholder input is crucial to refining the ambitious Green Energy scenarios, particularly regarding hydrogen use for exports versus domestic green industries.

The consultation process is divided into two stages:

• Stage 1: Published on December 11, 2024, seeking submissions by February 11, 2025.

• Stage 2: Scheduled for February 2025, focusing on emissions reduction parameters and expanded inputs.

AEMO will host a webinar on January 23, 2025, to discuss the report and address questions.

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This consultation is a vital step toward securing Australia’s energy future, balancing innovation, policy alignment, and stakeholder collaboration.